Optimism for 2012

I don't care what the experts say, the 2012 Minnesota Twins will not only be better than the 2011 Minnesota Twins, they will be better than most of the experts think.

Many Twins fans share a feeling of pessimism heading into the season after such a dismal 2011 campaign, and I suppose, rightfully so. Mauer, Morneau, and Span's health raised red flags. The bullpen was a disaster. The starting rotation was inconsistent and lacked a true "ace". And the middle infield made more fundamental errors than Twins fans have grown accustomed to seeing.

But that was 2011. 2012 is a new year. And if Twins teams of recent memory have taught fans anything, it's to not count them out.

Here are the reasons I'm optimistic heading into tomorrow's Opening Day 2012:

1. Terry Ryan: The Twins, under the leadership of GM Bill Smith, were a disaster. It was apparent that Bill Smith never really had a "plan" for where he wanted to take this team. He let key figures walk. He traded away sustainable players for nothing but mere peanuts. He let Gardenhire run amok with favoritism for mediocre players. Well, not anymore. I commend the front office for not letting this get worse than it already was, stepping in, and making an effort to right the ship. If there's any man that can do it, I trust Terry Ryan. Already this Spring he's weeded this team of talent and handcuffed Gardy in a way that forces him to put the best team on the field that he can. Willingham and Doumit are solid, if not slightly superior, substitutions for Cuddyer and Kubel. Gone is the Nishioka experiment. Gone is Revere starting in LF. Gone is Drew Butera and his putrid .170 batting average. Terry Ryan will keep Gardy in check. And we already look like a better ballclub because of him. 

2. Health: It's impossible to predict a team's health from season to season. People may look at the Twins and feel pretty safe betting against them because of recent injuries to players like Mauer, Morneau, and Span, but the fact remains, you never know. Miguel Cabrera could injury himself in the first week of the season and kill Detroit's chances at a division repeat. You never know. Mauer came under a lot of scrutiny last season because of his "leg weakness" and I personally feel that a lot of it was blown out of proportion. I've come to realize that the mainstream sports media doesn't really give a rip about the Minnesota Twins. I think Joe took it all personally and he seems to be revitalized this season. If he's healthy, alone, he's good enough to ensure that the Twins will not lose 90 games again. And he appears fit as can be this Spring.

Concussions are a different story. No one knew how Morneau or Span would return. A lot of stories covering Justin's recovery painted a rosy picture, but there was always a sliver of caution spoken from Justin himself. Let's face it, baseball is just a game. He's a young, rich, man. He has his life to think about.

Many Twins fans wrote him off. Many. I've heard lots of people suggest that this will be his final season in the bigs and that he will be done, or cut, by mid-season. Well if this Spring is any sign of things to come, I expect much bigger things than I did a few months ago. Because Justin is beginning to resemble the Justin of old. Keeping him firmly rooted in the role of DH will help keep him healthy as well.

As I said, you can't predict injuries, but from where I'm standing, the Twins appear to be less dinged up than they were last year. And that should account for more wins. 

3. New Faces: Whether or not any of the new acquisitions, or the young guys getting their first taste of early season, big league action, will pan out, is still up for debate as the season hasn't even begun. But, I think each new face is an intriguing one. On paper, Josh Willingham should prove to be more productive than fan favorite Micheal Cuddyer was. And on paper, Ryan Doumit should prove to be more well-rounded of a player than Jason Kubel was. It hurt losing both, and while neither of the guys that replaced them are flashy "names", on paper both should be equally as productive, if not more.

Jamey Carroll is an interesting "upgrade" too. The middle infield was a disaster last year. It was obvious from the start that Nishioka was not going to work at shortstop. And Casilla, while showing signs of becoming a formidable secondbaseman, couldn't stay healthy. The number of errors committed by the plethora of players that contributed at shortstop and second base was far too many. With Carroll manning short, that will change. And for a starting rotation that relies on ground ball outs, that's a good thing. Carroll is surely getting up there in age, but he's a smart ball player and has always produced solid results wherever he's played. I think we Twins fans will like him a lot.

Young guys too, will get their shot at playing this year and fans will be clamoring to see how they perform. It is exciting to see guys like Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendriks break camp with the team and both have the potential of contributing nicely from day one. Parmelee may be starting in RF in Baltimore Friday night and Hendriks is penciled in as the number 3 pitcher, starting on Easter Sunday, while Baker and Marquis are absent. Other guys like Joe Benson (OF) and Brian Dozier (SS) will be waiting in the wings in Rochester too, in case the injury bug strikes. It's been a while since the Twins have had anything of substance waiting in Rochester. They just may this year.

4. The AL Central: I'm still not convinced the AL Central teams have done anything to become a better division overall, which means, with some health, the Twins could be right back in the thick of things and competing this year. The Indians are no better now than they were last year. If anything, frequent injuries to Grady Sizemore and the whole Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez) situation is sure to be a setback. The White Sox got perceivably worse, losing Guillen, Buherle, and Quentin. And the Royals, while sure to be an up and coming glamor pick to compete, are still nothing but young, untested talent. I think Prince Fielder's addition to Detroit only makes up for the loss of Victor Martinez for the season and in moving Cabrera to third, actually makes the team very weak defensively. I'm not even sure if his stats will transfer well to Detroit's lineup. Milwaukee's table setters had far superior OBPs and Miller Park is much more hitter friendly than Comerica, especially for lefties. And as Prince's career has gone on, he's become more and more dependent on home games to hit his homeruns and he's pulled a fair amount of them in recent years. Plus, lets see how they like an entire season of Delmon Young holding down the fort in LF.

5. Francisco Liriano: Frankie is pitching in a "contract" season and we all know what happens in "contract" seasons. He looks physically fit this Spring and his pitching has been sharp as ever. I fully expect him to have a great season and become this team's one true Ace . . . however with his inconsistent performances of past, I'm not sure that I'd want to dish out too much cash in the offseason, even if he becomes the dominant force this year that I think he will be. I'd rather some other team overpay for a bloated performance in a contract year.

Now, I'm not entirely naive . . . I understand that the starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired. They can at times pitch well but have been terribly inconsistent. Baker's health is a question and Marquis' transition to the American League will undoubtedly be rocky. Hendriks could be a pleasant surprise and Pavano will be a consistent innings-eater. I think Anthony Swarzek could become someone to benefit the team, but time will tell.

The bullpen, while more familiar this season and stable, still will keep fans on the edge of their seats. Or falling off them. I love Perkins and Duensing. Not sure on Capps as a closer but have to trust Terry Ryan's judgement.

All in all, I'm feeling confident that Spring has given Twins fans some hope for optimism, when just a few months ago, there wasn't any.